Ever Rising Expectations

On one hand, I know that the accelerating march of technology is a cliche. But I still find it interesting how some things that were novelties a few years ago, and still spreading last year, I just expect now. Three examples that leap to mind are TiVo (or more generally DVRs), cell phones, automotive smart keys.

I called my parents today to say "hi," but they were about to watch the Belmont Stakes, and so we quickly arranged to talk later. They don't take TV particularly seriously, having for years had about three and a half low-quality broadcast channels available to them. We just got their broadcast digital converter box working last weekend, so they now have about 10 nice looking digital standard def channels. And yet still I found myself surprised at the idea of needing to watch television according to the broadcast schedule. Of course they have a VHS VCR with which they could have recorded the race, if it was hooked up (it's not). But I realized that I now just assume everyone has a TiVo or other DVR with which to trivially pause or time shift their TV viewing. Almost everytime I turn on the TV in our living room now, it is paused at whatever the last person was watching. The notion of "live TV" quietly transitioned in my brain in the last few years from obvious to an amusing anachronism.

Likewise, cell phones have made the jump. When I swap contact information with people now, the question isn't "Do you have a cell phone," but rather, "Do you still have a land line?" I still remember telling someone to call me on my cell phone in 1994 and being met with an incredulous "Are you serious?" Now that same surprise would meet the news that someone *didn't* have a cell phone.

And finally, the Smart Key system in my Prius has managed to warp my perception of how cars should behave when I try to drive the minivan or my daughter's Subaru. I sometimes find myself walking up to the cars other than the Prius and standing holding the handle waiting for it to beep happily and unlock for me. Instead, it just sits there. Or sometimes I hop into the driver's seat and reach futily for the non-existent "Power" button to turn it on. The need to actually take the key out of my pocket just seems so retro now.

So what new functions, capabilities, and personal accessories will be so completely ubiquitous that we completely take them for granted in another 5, 10, or 20 years? And how can I start building them today?